Game Result Predictions
Friday, March 23
The Resid and Elo Predictions calculates each team's final score, margin of victory (spread), and probability of winning the game.
Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Tennessee-Martin (9-39) 3 6 +3.0 39% ✔ 5 +2.5 35% ✔
Belmont (19-36) 6 9 -3.0 61% 8 -2.5 65%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Morehead State (36-26) 4 9 -1.0 54% ✘ 9 -2.5 64% ✘
Eastern Kentucky (30-31) 10 8 +1.0 46% 6 +2.5 36%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Morehead State (36-26) 10 9 -1.0 54% ✔ 9 -2.5 64% ✔
Eastern Kentucky (30-31) 2 8 +1.0 46% 6 +2.5 36%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Jacksonville (40-21) 6 6 +1.0 46% ✘ 7 -3.0 69% ✔
Jacksonville State (32-25) 4 7 -1.0 54% 4 +3.0 31%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Eastern Illinois (20-31) 4 7 +2.0 42% ✔ 7 +1.0 42% ✔
Murray State (24-29) 7 9 -2.0 58% 8 -1.0 58%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
SIUE (15-37) 6 4 +3.0 39% ✔ 2 +4.5 26% ✔
Southeast Missouri (26-30) 11 7 -3.0 61% 7 -4.5 74%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Austin Peay (30-27) 12 6 +5.0 33% ✔ 3 +9.0 11% ✔
Tennessee Tech (53-12) 15 11 -5.0 67% 12 -9.0 89%

Final Resid Prediction ELO Prediction
Score Spread Win Prob. Score Spread Win Prob.
Austin Peay (30-27) 0 6 +5.0 33% ✔ 3 +9.0 11% ✔
Tennessee Tech (53-12) 4 11 -5.0 67% 12 -9.0 89%

Friday, March 23 Results
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 75%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 88%
Overall Results (851 games)
Resid Prediction Accuracy: 71%
ELO Prediction Accuracy: 68%

The goal for the Game Result Predictions is to determine winners at a rate greater than 70%.